THE RORT · DOSSIER · POLYMARKETSTATUS · TRACKED
CFTC: named together in 2 articlesCFTCDonald Trump: named together in 2 articlesDonald TrumpSantos: named together in 2 articlesSantosGoogle: named together in 1 articleGoogleSteve Witkoff: named together in 1 articleSteve WitkoffTrump Media: named together in 1 articleTrump MediaWorld Liberty Financial: named together in 1 articleWorld Liberty Financi…
DOSSIER / ACTORPLATFORM · PREDICTION MARKET

Polymarket

Status Tracked

The prediction market where US$529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the Iran bombing, including six newly created accounts that profited about US$1 million by betting the strike would land by 28 February 2026.

Last on record
2026-09
Named in
2 articles
Across
1 case

Named in 2 articles across 1 case 7 connections: companies 4, regulators and bodies 1, people 2

Key figure on file
At least 50 accounts
The number of brand-new Polymarket accounts that placed substantial ‘yes’ bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before Trump announced… OPB / NPR, 10 April 2026
2
Articles naming it
1
Cases it recurs across
7
Linked in the graph
1
Figures on file

Fig. 01 / Where this name appears

The War TradeAt least 50 accountsThe number of brand-new Polymarket accounts that placed substantial ‘yes’ bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before Trump announc…2 articles →
Fig. 01Source: article scan · every article naming itAs of 2026‑09Auto-assembled

Fig. 02 / On the record

  1. At least 50 accountsThe number of brand-new Polymarket accounts that placed substantial ‘yes’ bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before Trump announced it, several of them making that single bet and nothing else through their accounts, despite what public reporting described as signs that negotiations had collapsed.Source: OPB / NPR, 10 April 2026Ninety-seven per cent →
Fig. 02Source: figures on file for this name, each tied to the article it came fromAs of 2026‑09Auto-assembled

How we know

The sources of the 2 articles that name Polymarket, by the tier the desk declared. A source supports its article, not necessarily a claim about Polymarket.

Evidence strength · 50 sources across 2 articles
  • Primary 4
  • Official 2
  • Masthead 27
  • Trade 3
  • Aggregator 5
  • 9 not yet graded
Primary
the document itself: legislation, a court record, a filing, a regulator’s own publication
Official
the organisation’s own statement about itself
Masthead
a news organisation with a corrections policy, reporting the primary document
Trade
specialist or trade press
Aggregator
republishes others’ work
How sources are graded

2 of 2 articles are graded on every headline finding. How findings are graded

Fig. 03 / Named together

PolymarketCFTC: named together in 2 articlesCFTC2Donald Trump: named together in 2 articlesDonald Trump2Santos: named together in 2 articlesSantos2Google: named together in 1 articleGoogle1Steve Witkoff: named together in 1 articleSteve Witkoff1Trump Media: named together in 1 articleTrump Media1World Liberty Financial: named together in 1 articleWorld Liberty Financial1
The 7 names most often in the same articles as Polymarket. A line's weight, and the number by each name, is how many articles name both. Grey chords join the neighbours most often named together themselves (two articles or more). Circles are people and organisations, squares are mechanisms. Named together is all this shows: it is not a finding about what the relationship is.
Fig. 03Source: article scan · articles naming bothAs of 2026‑09Auto-assembled

How this page is assembled. The name, status and role are the desk's entity record. The article list, case counts, connections and the figures under On the record are read by script from the published articles that name Polymarket: the desk's key figures where it declared them, otherwise figures harvested from those articles. A connection is a name that appears in the same articles; it is not a finding about the relationship. Under How we know, the sources are those articles' references, counted once each and tiered only where the desk declared a tier; a grade beside an article is its weakest headline finding, shown only where every headline finding is graded. The page is rebuilt when an article is published or changed.

← THE DOCKET